Favorite # 6: Check out each team’s chances of winning the Brazilian Championship Round  Statistical spy

Favorite # 6: Check out each team’s chances of winning the Brazilian Championship Round Statistical spy

In the final round, seven hosts were named favorites, but only three of them won, and Avaí won without being considered a favorite. Now eight teams will play at home with the best ability to win. We will soon find out whether this time they will impose themselves on the field or increase the percentage of their winning points. Sao Paulo is the team with the highest chances of winning, with 59.3% chances, while Cuiabá appears to be the biggest underdog (18.1%). Atlético-MG (46.4%) and Avaí (45%) completed the podium of the biggest favorites of the round. Atlético-GO (20.6%) and Juventude (21.7%), zebrões.

+ See the Brazilian Championship table

+ Brasileirão counter-attacks, penalties, yellow cards, submissions and fierce start in your goals

In partnership with economist Bruno Amizumi, we analyzed 84,702 shots recorded by Espião Statístico in 3,469 Brasileirões games since the 2013 edition, based on the current production of teams based on target expectations (xG). Acts as a parameter to measure capacity, which is internationally (xG). See procedure at the end of the text).

+ Goiás, Botafogo and Corinthians top in DM balance between Serie A teams: see rankings

Hulk, Léo Gamalho, Gabigol and Raphael Veiga have excellent goal averages in Serie A. See the top 10

The likes began to show the average age of the starting teams so you can compare the history of the clubs in this Brasileirão. Is it very different from one game to another? Is one team too small or too experienced? See below.

– Photo: Statistical Detective

  • Palmeiras has the ninth lead in Brasileirão (1 W, 1 L, 1 L, 44%). Bragantino is the second best visitor (1 W, 1 L, 0 L, 67%). Palmyra is the third most aggressive team in the Championship (averaging 16.2 shots per match overall). Bragentino is 13th overall in offense, with 12.0 per game completion, but his average away from home is 16.0, which is the third most visited team. Therefore, it is a game for many submissions. Out of the last ten goals, not counting penalties and direct fouls, Bragantino scored nine goals from the top (and 14 of the last 16). Palmyra conceded half of the last ten goals from the top and half from the bottom. You need more than luck to succeed in affiliate business. Palmyra, on the other hand, had more success with fewer dramas, scoring six of the last ten goals. Bragantino also recognizes the top half and the bottom half. So far this season, Palmyra has scored in all 16 of his home games, and Bragentino has failed to score in just two of his 12 round games.

– Photo: Statistical Detective

  • In principle, this is a groundball game: Ceará scored half of the last ten goals from the bottom and half from the height, and seven of the last ten goals in the exchange; Flamingo scored eight and conceded seven of the last ten goals. At least so far, Ceará is the worst home team, having lost two games in two games at Brasileirão. Flamengo is the 13th guest (0 W, 1 L, 1 L, 17%). Flamingo are one of the teams that have faced the most counterattacks (11) and conceded such a goal. Ceará is the team with the most counterattacks (11) and has already scored two goals, the fifth highest in the competition.

– Photo: Statistical Detective

  • Atlético-MG started Brasileirão skating and at home they have 1 W (Internacional 2 x 0), 1 L (Coritiba 2 x 2), 1 D (América-MG 1 x 2), 44% success. As a visitor, Atlético-GO is even worse, with defeats (Bragantino 4 x 0) and draws (Cuiabá 1 x 1), with 17%. The match is likely to be a goal from the Hawaiian Games as Atlético-GO has suffered less than nine of the last ten goals, including a goal in the # 5 defeat to Goiás. Atletico-MG have scored six of their last ten goals from the bottom and half of the top. Atlético-GO has scored seven of the last ten goals in the game, but Atlético-MG’s defense is less difficult to control from the top, six of the last ten goals have been in aerial dramas.

– Photo: Statistical Detective

  • Starting work under the leadership of Intermanomanes. Another groundball game as both teams conceded six of the last ten goals without counting penalties and direct fouls. Inter scored eight of the last ten and Corinthians seven. Corinthians is the team with the least number of penalties (nine) with yellow cards, and Inter is the team with the second highest number of yellow (19). Both teams have already scored in the counterattack, and the Corinthians have scored two, one and one. Inter have an average of 18 shots at home, and the Corinthians are averaging one goal for every nine shots. The Corinthians are the team that eliminates the least from within the area (3.8 per game), and Inter ranks seventh, averaging 7.4 times per game.

– Photo: Statistical Detective

  • Most likely to score in an aerial game by Fluminense, who scored seven of his last ten goals, did not count penalties and direct fouls. It was also how Athletico-PR conceded eight of the last ten goals (and 11 of the last 13). Athletico is attacking from below, with seven goals in the pass exchange. Fluminense conceded half of the last ten goals in passes and half in the air. Atletico-PR lost the two games they played as guests. Fluminense drew one and lost the other as home team (17%).

– Photo: Statistical Detective

  • Sao Paulo won both games as a home team in Brasiliaro and won over Coyaba, who won two games as a guest at Santos (4×1) and lost in the middle of the week after the Copa do Brasil collapse. Suffered, on fine. Cuiabá won one of the last eight games played (1 W, 3 L, 4 L, 25% success. São Paulo won 3 W, 4 L, 1 L, 54% success in the last eight games). Counting penalties and direct fouls without an air goal, Sao Paulo scored six of the last ten (15 of the last 19), and Cuiabá scored seven of the last ten using high balls. , The last ten goals (11 of the last 15), and Sao Paulo at the bottom half and half the height. Of Sao Paulo’s last 15 aerial goals, Caleri scored six, Arbolida four, Wellington two, and Luciano one goal and one assist.

– Photo: Statistical Detective

  • Not counting penalties and direct fouls, for both teams and against them, half of the last ten goals came from high balls and half from low passes, except for USA-MG scores, eight out of ten. Coritiba has the best home attack of Brasileirão’s start, with six goals scored. Two, faced the tenth house mark. América-MG scored two goals away from home and won five. Each team has already imposed two penalties in their favor. There were already two against Curitiba. America, no one.

– Photo: Statistical Detective

  • Low ball game, although both teams have conceded half of the last ten goals in high balls and half in pass exchanges. Botafogo scored six of the last ten goals using ground balls, and Fortaleza scored eight goals. Only two goals have been conceded. The fort took one. They haven’t scored like that yet.

– Photo: Statistical Detective

  • An interesting confrontation because without counting penalties and direct fouls, Avaí conceded seven of the last ten goals in the pass exchange and conceded it, while Juventude scored seven goals in aerial dramas and thus scored eight goals. Avaí’s defense has been very combative, the fifth defense to have suffered the least number of specific shots (3.8 per game) and will now have to defend its airspace as well. Juventude comes with an average of 4.8 shots per match.

– Photo: Statistical Detective

  • The Santos have strengthened their relegation-threatened defense at Palstao and are now the least leaked team at the start of Brasileirão, with four goals scored and a superb strike with ten. Santos has scored six of the last ten goals in aerial dramas, and the Goiás have lost half as well as scoring. Santos conceded six of the last ten goals in fewer plays. Goiás drew two home games, but won the classic against Atlético-GO (0 x 1). Goiás is the second home team with the lowest number of submissions (7.5 per game), and Santos is the guest who has the lowest (5.5). Goiás is the home team with the most requests (20.0), and Santos is the fourth most attacking outsider (16.5).

Favorite offers the ability to compare each team’s performance over the last 60 days at Brasileirão 2022 in all competitions, at home or away, and in the last six games, whether at home. Defensive and offensive performance of teams in aerial and low sports is also considered. Calculations referring to the influence of high balls and the exchange of low passes between scored and conceded goals only consider the characteristics of goals scored in dramas. Olympic goals, penalty kicks and direct free kicks are not counted in determining air or ground influence because they are direct goal kicks.

We present the data probability based on the parameters of the “Expected Goals” or “Expect Goals” (xG) model, a metric in the data analysis of 84,702 shots registered by Espião Statístico in 3,469 Brasileiresões games. With reference. 2013 edition. We consider the distance and angle of the shot as well as the actual features of the play (for example, whether it came from a cross, direct foul or steal), the body part used, whether the shot was made earlier. There was a difference in the market value of the teams in each season, a difference in the score at the time of play and at the time of each shot.

A player’s performance is compared to the average of his position, whether he is an attacker, midfielder, midfielder, fullback or defender, and we consider that if done with “good feet” What to expect from a shot (right for right-handers, left for left-handed) and “bad foot” (vice versa). Opposite individuals, who kick almost as many times with each foot, were identified.

For every 100 half-moon shots, for example, only seven turn into rounds. Therefore, a crescent moon is expected to have a round (xG) of about 0.07. Each position on the field has different expectations of the shot being converted into a goal, which is increased in the event of a counter-attack as there are fewer opponents to avoid the completion of the game. Each score is added during the match to reach the team’s total XG in each game.

The model used in the analysis follows a statistical division called Bivariate Poisson, which calculates the probability of events (in this case, each team’s goals) occurring within a certain time interval (game). ۔ The Monte Carlo method was used to arrive at predictions about the chances of each team winning the championship in each position, relying primarily on simulation to produce results. For every game that hasn’t been played yet, we run ten thousand simulations.

Favoritism will also present a graph with the evolution of the moving average in each of the five games of goal expectation (xG) in the attack attack and the sum of what their opponents did in those games. For graphics, a moving average is created in each of the five games, represented by lines of attack (black) and defense (red, which is how much the opponent actually increases xG in each game). This is an accurate way to measure each team’s potential. The yellow line indicates the difference between an analytical team and its opponents preparing for an attack.

* Statistical Detective Team Formed: Philip Towers, Guilherme Maniaudet, Guilherme Marcel, Joao Geira, Landro Silva, Roberto Melson and Walmer Stuart.

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