June IPCA-15 rose 0.69% compared to May, slightly higher than expected. Health plans are high.

The National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), Brazil’s official inflation forecast, rose 0.69% month-on-month in June, 0.10 percentage points (pp) higher than the registered rate (0.59%) in May. The most influential sub-items at the monthly rate were health plans, which grew 2.99% and represented 0.10 pp in the June results.

IPCA-E, which is the IPCA-15 quarterly deposit, was 3.04%. For the year, deposits increased by 5.65% in IPCA-15, while in the last 12 months, the rate decreased to 12.04%, which is lower than the 12.20% recorded in the previous 12 months. In June 2021, the index was 0.83%. The figures were released this Friday (24) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

The market expectation, according to Refinitiv Consensus, was an increase of 0.62% over May and an annual increase of 11.98%.

The figures come a day after the National Monetary Council (CMN) set an inflation target of 3% in 2025, leading to a series of target cuts in the central bank’s monetary policy. I get disturbed.

Increase in transport and health plans

All groups of products and services surveyed showed an increase in June. The biggest impact came from the transport group, which grew 0.84%, the slowest in May (1.80%). The group’s general index is 0.19 pp. The largest change was in the clothing group (1.77% and 0.08 pp).

Another highlight is the Health and Personal Care Group (1.27%), which contributed 0.16 pp to the June index, largely due to health plans, which the National Agency for Health Insurance (ANS) reported in May. Up to 15.50% of changes made by Effective May 26, 2022 and whose cycle ends in April 2023. In the group, it also affected a 1.38% increase in pharmaceutical products, with an effect of 0.05 pp in the monthly index.

Returning to transport, the group’s decline was due to lower fuel prices (-0.55%), up 2.05% in May. Although diesel oil (2.83%) increased, ethanol and petrol decreased by 4.41% and 0.27%, respectively.

At the top of the transport chart, airline tickets (11.36%), volunteer car insurance (4.20%) and license plates and licenses (1.71%) are prominent. Motorcycles (1.66%), new cars (1.46%) and used cars (0.12%) also rose in price.

The positive change in city buses (0.32%) is due to the 11.36% fare adjustment (3.64%) in El Salvador, effective April 1, but only since June 4. In the intercity bus sub-item (1.34%), Bello Horizonte (9.34%) had an adjustment of 17%, effective May 16, and El Salvador 11.85% (3.66%), effective June 10.

Housing

In the housing group, which recorded only a decline in May (-3.85%), a 0.66% increase came from the water and sewerage rate (4.29%), which was affected by the changes implemented in three sectors: 20.81% in Belem. 11.41%), as of May 28; 12.89% (10.99%) in Sao Paulo, as of May 10; And 4.99% (4.51%) in Curitiba, as of May 17.

As of May 18, piped gas (2.04%) also contributed to the increase, resulting in 9.16% in Curitiba (7.98%) and 5.95% (3.28%) in Rio de Janeiro.

Still in the housing, by the waterfall, the main thing is electricity (-0.68%). The green flag came into force on April 16, with no additional charge on electricity bills. From September 2021, the dehydration flag is in effect, with an increase of R $ 14.20 for every 100 kWh used. Variations in regions ranged from -3.42% in Brasilia to 6.16% in Recife, with 18.77% adjustment in tariffs, which is valid from 29 April. On April 22, tariff changes of 24.23% in Fortaleza (5.07%) and 20.97% in El Salvador (3.72%) were implemented. Another sub-item that fell in June was bottled gas (-0.95%).

The housing group, by the way, is the only group with a quarterly (-1.54%) decline, which may have affected the item (-3.85%).

The pace of eating slows down.

Group Food and Beverages (0.25%) fell after rising 1.52% in May. The result was food-for-home consumption, which rose from 1.71% to 0.08% in May. Sub-item Long Life Milk, which increased by 7.99% in May, recorded an increase of 3.45% in June.

In addition, prices of carrots (-27.52%), tomatoes (-12.76%), potatoes (-8.75%), vegetables (-5.44%) and fruits (-2.61%) declined.

In the off-home food sector, growth from May (1.02%) to June (0.74%) was even less severe, mainly due to the snack item, which recorded a 1.10% increase over the change. 1.89% in the last month. Food (0.70%) produced more than one result registered in May (0.52%).

Other groups ranged between 0.07% for education and 0.94% for residential subjects.

Regionally, all surveyed areas increased in June. The largest was in El Salvador (1.16%), especially the 20.97% adjustment (3.72%) in petrol (4.25%) and electricity rates. The lowest increase was in Belium (0.18%), which was affected by lower prices of açaí (-8.08%) and petrol (-1.70%).

History of inflation

(With IBGE News Agency)

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